﻿ 基于Copula函数的梯级水库设计洪水地区 组成研究

# 基于Copula函数的梯级水库设计洪水地区 组成研究 Regional Flood Composition of Cascade Reservoirs Based on Copula Function

Abstract: The equivalent frequency regional composition method is widely used in practice. However, this method is based on artificial hypothesis and lacks the statistical basis. Two statistical composition methods, i.e. the conditional expectation method and the most likely method are proposed and derived based on Copula function. The Qingjiang cascade reservoirs are selected as the case study and the impact of Shuibuya-Geheyan cascade reservoirs regulation on the design flood of Gaobazhou dam site is analyzed. It is demonstrated that the results of equivalent frequency method are systematically smaller than those of the two proposed methods, which may lead to increasing the hydrological estimation risk. The proposed methods with strong statistical basis can capture the spatial correlation of flood events for each contributing watershed area, and the estimated design flood values are more reasonable than those of the equivalent frequency method. The 1000-year design peak discharge at Gaobazhou dam site has been cut about 40% due to the regulation of upstream cascade reservoirs.

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