基于统计降尺度模型的太湖流域降水 气温变化预测
Prediction of Precipitation and Temperature Change in the Taihu Basin Based on Statistical Downscaling Model

作者: 郭 靖 , 程开宇 :中国水电顾问集团华东勘测设计研究院有限公司,杭州; 王丹颖 :浙江华东环境发展有限公司,杭州; 陈 华 :武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉;

关键词: 气候变化统计降尺度降水气温太湖流域Climate Change Statistical Downscaling Precipitation Temperature Taihu Basin

摘要: 利用太湖流域7个国家气象站实测降水、气温数据和NCEP再分析数据,分别建立了太湖流域降水、气温统计降尺度模型;在A2B2排放情景下应用HadCM3的输出数据,预测太湖流域未来2020s(2010~2039)2050s(2040~2069)2080s(2070~2099)三个时期降水、气温变化情况。研究结果表明:A2情景下,未来3个时期太湖流域降水呈先增加后减少趋势,B2情景下,未来3个时期太湖流域降水呈增加趋势;两种气候情景下,未来3个时期太湖流域气温总体呈上升趋势,其中A2情景比B2情景升温趋势更加显著。本文研究成果可为政府相关决策层制定未来太湖流域社会经济发展规划提供科学的依据

Abstract: The observed precipitation series and temperature series from seven national weather stations were used to establish the statistical downscaling model with the NCEP reanalysis data in the Taihu basin, respectively. Then, the output data of HadCM3 under A2 and B2 scenarios were inputted to the established automated statistical downscaling model (ASD) to predict the future precipitation and temperature changes during 2020s(2010-2039), 2050s(2040-2069) and 2080s(2070- 2099) periods in the Taihu Basin. The results show that the precipitation will be increased first and then decreased during the three future periods under A2 scenarios. However, under B2 scenarios, the precipitation will be increased during these three periods. For both A2 and B2 scenarios simulated by HadCM3 outputs, the future temperature will also be increased during these three periods, and the increased trend under A2 scenarios is more significant than the trend under B2 scenarios. The research results in this study will be served as a scientific basis for making the future social and economic development plans of the Taihu Basin by the relevant government decision-making.

文章引用: 郭 靖 , 王丹颖 , 陈 华 , 程开宇 (2014) 基于统计降尺度模型的太湖流域降水 气温变化预测 。 水资源研究, 3, 107-116. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2014.32016

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