变化环境下的佛山降雨趋势特征及影响因素分析
Characteristics and Influences of Precipitation Tendency in Foshan under Environmental Variations

作者: 施宁宁 :中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广州;南京市水利规划设计院有限责任公司,南京; 刘嘉仪 , 邝燕良 , 周月英 , 廖 强 , 刘祖发 :中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广州;

关键词: 佛山变化环境降雨特征影响趋势分析Foshan Environmental Variation Precipitation Characteristics Influences Tendency Analysis

摘要: 本文通过对佛山市5个区的主要雨量站在1956~2010年的降雨量数据,用泰森多边形法进行统计整理得出佛山市月降雨量。用一元线性回归法线性拟合月、季的降雨量变化特征,再通过滑动平均法和Mann-Kendall检验法分析佛山年降雨量在过去50多年间的变化趋势,并进行显著性及突变检验,得出佛山市降雨情况在1956~2010年呈上升趋势,在1997年发生降雨量上升的突变。结合气候环境的变化,认为佛山市年降雨量基本随年平均温度的升高而升高,与广东省温度变化正相关。此外,佛山市夏季降雨量的主要影响因素为人类活动造成的城市热岛效应,极端降雨量的年际变化尚未发现规律。
  Precipitation data of main precipitation stations of Foshan’s 5 zones during 1956-2010 are analyzed by Thiessen Polygons to explore the average monthly precipitation of Foshan. The method of linear regression is used to detect the variation characteristics of monthly and quarterly precipitation. The method of moving average and Mann-Kendall are used to explore the variation tendency, significance and mutation detection of Foshan’s precipitation during those 50 years. Combined with the variation of climatic environment, these conclusions are drawn: the precipitation of Foshan is getting higher during 1956-2010, and a mutation of rising was detected in 1997; Foshan’s annual average precipitation is positively correlated with the annual average temperature of Guangdong; the precipitation of summer is mainly controlled by urban heat island caused by human activities. No regular pattern is detected in annual variation of extreme precipitation.

文章引用: 施宁宁 , 刘嘉仪 , 邝燕良 , 周月英 , 廖 强 , 刘祖发 (2014) 变化环境下的佛山降雨趋势特征及影响因素分析。 水资源研究, 3, 41-49. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2014.31007

参考文献

[1] 陈志芳. 佛山降水变化的小波特征[J]. 气象科技, 2002, 30(4): 214-217.
CHEN Zhifang. Wavelet feature of rainfall variation in Foshan. Meteorological science and technology, 2002, 30(4): 214-217. (in Chinese)

[2] 许吟隆, 薛峰, 林一骅. 不同温室气体排放情景下中国21世纪地面气温和降水变化的模拟分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2003, 8(2): 209-217.
XU Yinlong, XUE Feng, LIN Yihua. Changes of surface air temperature and precipitation in China during the 21st century simulated by HadCM2 under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2003, 8(2): 209-217. (in Chinese)

[3] 王亚雄, 黄淑娴, 刘祖发, 等. 变化环境下北江下游年径流量的加权马尔可夫链预测[J]. 生态环境学报, 2011, 20(4): 754760.
WANG Yaxiong, HUANG Shuxian, LIU Zufa, et al. Forecast of yearly river runoff in lower reaches of Beijiang River by Weighted Markov-Chain Method in changing environments. Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2011, 20(4): 754-760. (in Chinese)

[4] 陈仁升, 康尔泗, 蓝永超, 等. 河西地区近50a来年径流、降水和气温变化趋势分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2001, 15(4): 51-56.
CHEN Rensheng, KANG Ersi, LAN Yongchao, et al. Variance tendency of annual runoff, precipitation and temperature in Hexi region in 50-years. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2001, 15(4): 51-56. (in Chinese)

[5] 黄先香, 炎利军, 李与广, 等. 佛山市暴雨的气候特征及天气系统配置[J]. 广东气象, 2011, 33(2): 12-15.
HUANG Xianxiang, YAN Lijun, LI Yuguang, et al. Climate characteristics and the weather pattern of torrential rain in Foshan. Guangdong Meteorology, 2011, 33(2): 12-15. (in Chinese)

[6] 徐宗学, 张楠. 黄河流域近50年降水变化趋势分析[J]. 地理研究, 2006, 25(1): 27-34.
XU Zongxue, ZHANG Nan. Long-term trend of precipitation in the Yellow River basin during the past 50 years. Geographical Research, 2006, 25(1): 27-34. (in Chinese)

[7] 张小霞, 陈小芸, 杨宇声, 等. 佛山一场大暴雨的强降水特[J]. 广东气象, 2006, 2: 40-46.
ZHANG Xiaoxia, CHEN Xiaoyu, YANG Yusheng, et al. Analysis on the characteristics of a large rainstorm in Foshan. Guangdong Meteorology, 2006, 2: 40-46. (in Chinese)

[8] 施雅风, 沈永平. 西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初探[J]. 科技导报, 2003, 2: 54-57.
SHI Yafeng, SHEN Yongping. Signal, impact and outlook of climatic shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in northwest China. Science and Technology Review, 2003, 2: 54-57. (in Chinese)

[9] 刘德地, 陈晓宏, 楼章华. 基于云模型的降雨时空分布特性分析[J]. 水利学报, 2009, 40(7): 850-857.
LIU Dedi, CHEN Xiaohong, LOU Zhanghua. Analysis on characteristics of spatial-temporal preci-pitation distribution based on cloud model. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2009, 40(7): 850-857. (in Chinese)

[10] 魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 北京: 北京气象出版社, 1999.
WEI Fengying. The current statistical climatic diagnosis and forecasting technology. Beijing: Beijing Meteorological Press, 1999. (in Chinese)

[11] 左洪超, 吕世华, 胡隐樵. 中国近50年气温及降水量的变化趋势分析[J]. 高原气象, 2004, 23(2): 238-244.
ZUO Hongchao, LV Shihua, HU Yinqiao. Variations trend of yearly mean air temperature and precipitation in China in the last 50 years. Plateau Meteorology, 2004, 23(2): 238-244. (in Chinese)

[12] 符淙斌, 王强. 气候突变的定义和检测方法[J]. 大气科学, 1992, 16(4): 482-493.
FU Congbin, WANG Qiang. The definition and detection of the abrupt climatic change. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica, 1992, 16(4): 482-493. (in Chinese)

[13] KUMAR, S. and MERWADE V. Streamflow trends in Indiana: Effects of long term persistence, precipitation and subsurface drains. Journal of Hydrology, 2009, 374(1-2): 171-183.

[14] 顾骏强, 杨军. 中国华南地区气候和环境变化特征及其对策[J]. 资源科学, 2005, 27(1): 128-135.
GU Junqiang, YANG Jun. Features of climatic and environmental changes in the south China. Resources Science, 2005, 27(1): 128-135. (in Chinese)

[15] LIU, B., ZHAI, J. Q., HARTMANN, H., et al. Dryness/wetness variations in ten large river basins of China during the first 50 years of the 21st century. Quaternary International, 2010, 226(12): 101-111.

[16] CHEN DAVID, Y. Q., ZHANG, Q., et al. Precipitation variability (1956-2002) in the Dongjiang River (Zhujiang River Basin, China) and associated large-scale circulation. Quaternary International, 2011, 244: 130-137.

[17] 郭金兰, 刘凤辉, 杜辉, 等. 一次地形作用产生的强降雨过程分析[J]. 气象, 30(7): 12-17.
GUO Jinlan, LIU Fenghui, DU Hui, et al. Analysis of heavy orographic rainfall in Beijing. Meteorology, 2004, 30(7): 12-17. (in Chinese)

[18] 宋敏, 商良, 邵东国. 珠三角地区城市雨洪过程模拟与计算——以佛山市南海区北村水系为例[J]. 安全与环境学报, 2011, 11(4): 260-263.
SONG Min, SHANG Liang, SHAO Dongguo. Simulation and calculation of storm runoff process for Pearl River Delta megalopolis—A case study of the North Village water system, Nanhai District, Foshan Municipality. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2011, 11(4): 260-263. (in Chinese)

[19] 陈华, 郭生练, 郭海晋, 等. 汉江流域1951~2003年降水气温时空变化趋势分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(3): 340-345.
CHEN Hua, GUO Shenglian, GUO Haijin, et al. Temporal and spatial trend in the precipitation and temperature from 1951 to 2003 in the Hanjiang basin. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2006, 15(3): 340-345. (in Chinese)

[20] FISCHER, T., GEMMER, M., LIU, L. L., et al. Temperature and precipitation trends and dryness/wetness pattern in the Zhujiang River Basin, South China, 1961-2007. Quaternary International, 2011, 244: 138-148.

分享
Top