水文序列的方差变异诊断与识别
Diagnosis and Identification for Variance Variation of Hydrological Series

作者: 李彬彬 , 谢 平 , 张 波 , 李析男 :武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉;

关键词: 方差变异非一致性Breusch-Pagan检验诊断系统Variance Variation Inconsistency Breusch-Pagan Test Diagnosis System

摘要: 由于受全球气候变化和频繁人类活动的影响,水文序列非一致性问题逐渐突出,并引发了众多的关注。研究水文序列的变异性主要集中在均值上,对方差等高阶矩的变异性分析研究较少。本文提出了采用Breusch-Pagan检验检测序列方差的非一致性,结合水文变异诊断系统对方差变异形式进行识别的方法,以研究水文序列方差变异诊断与识别问题。并以海河区的永定河册田水库以上水资源三级区作为研究区域,探讨该区域年径流量方差变异情况。结果表明,该区域年径流量方差在1967年发生了跳跃向下的中变异,与实际情况较为一致。
 Under the influence of global climate changes and frequent human activities, the issue of inconsistency in hydrology stands out, and draws considerable attention. Study on hydrological sequence variability mainly focuses on the mean, and variation in the variance or high order moment catches less attention. A method for the issue of diagnosis and identification for variance variation of hydrological series is proposed in this paper: Breusch-Pagan test is used to check the inconsistency of the variance of the series, and Hydrological Variation Diagnosis System is designed to identify the variation form of variance. The third grade region on the upper reaches of Cetian Reservoir of Yongding River in the Haihe River is taken as the study area, and the variance variation of annual runoff series in this area is discussed. The result shows that the variance of annual runoff series in this area has a middle variation with a form of jump-down in 1967, which is consistent with the real situation.

文章引用: 李彬彬 , 谢 平 , 张 波 , 李析男 (2014) 水文序列的方差变异诊断与识别。 水资源研究, 3, 29-33. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2014.31005

参考文献

[1] 谢平, 陈广才, 雷红富等. 变化环境下地表水资源评价方法[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2009: 2. XIE Ping, CHEN Guangcai, LEI Hongfu, et al. Surface water resources evaluation methods on changing environment. Beijing: science press, 2009: 2. (in Chinese)

[2] MACHIWAL, D. and JHA, M. K. Hydrologic Time Series Analysis: Theory and Practice. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 2012.

[3] JAYAWARDENA, A. W. and LAU, W. H. Homogeneity tests for rainfall data. Journal of the Hong Kong Institution of Engineers, 1990: 22-25.

[4] KANG, H. M. and YUSOF, F. Homogeneity tests on daily rainfall series in Peninsular Malaysia. International Journal of Contemporary Mathematical Sciences, 2012, 7(1): 9-22.

[5] 梁忠民, 胡义明, 王军. 非一致性水文频率分析的研究进展[J]. 水科学进展, 2011, 22(6): 864-871. LIANG Zhongmin, HU Yiming and WANG Jun. Advances in hydrological frequency analysis of non-stationary time series. Advances in Water Science, 2011, 22(6): 864-871. ( in Chinese)

[6] GABRIELE, V., JAMES, A. S., FRANCESCO, S., et al. Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin. Advances in Water Resources, 2009, 32(8): 1255-1266.

[7] 黄少敏. 计量经济学入门[M]. 北京: 北京大学出版社, 2004: 7. HUANG Shaomin. Introduction to econometrics. Beijing: Peking University Press, 2004: 7. (in Chinese)

[8] 谢平, 陈广才, 雷红富等. 水文变异诊断系统[J]. 水力发电学报, 2010, 29(1): 85-91. XIE Ping, CHEN Guangcai, LEI Hongfu, et al. Hydrological al-teration diagnosis system. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2010, 1: 85-91. (in Chinese)

[9] 谢平, 许斌, 章树安等. 变化环境下区域水资源变异问题研究[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2012: 6. XIE Ping, XU Bin, ZHANG Shuan, et al. Regional water resources variation problem research under changing environments. Beijing: Science Press, 2012: 6. (in Chinese)

[10] 贾文, 甄有忠. 册田水库供水初步探讨[J]. 山西水利, 2003, 3: 39-40. JIA Wen and ZENG Youzhong. Preliminary discussion of Cetian reservoir water supply. Shanxi Water Resources, 2003, 3: 39-40.

[11] 范树宏. 积极开发桑干湖风景区为发展大同生态旅游开拓新路[J]. 山西水利, 2004, 4: 78-79. FAN Shuhong. Actively develop the Sanggan lake scenic spot, and pioneer a new road for the development of ecological tourism. Shanxi Water Resources, 2004, 4: 78-79.

分享
Top