珠江流域极端降雨时空变化规律及气候影响因素研究
Study on Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation and Its Affecting Factors of Climate in the Pearl River Basin

作者: 吴旭树 , 王兆礼 :华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广州; 赖成光 , 陈晓宏 :中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广州;

关键词: 极端降雨时空变化特征气候影响因子小波分析珠江流域 Extreme Precipitation Spatial and Temporal Characteristics Affecting Factors of Climate Wavelet Analysis The Pearl River Basin

摘要: 依据珠江流域41个气象站1960~2012年的日降雨资料,定义了5个极端降雨指标(极端降雨总量、极端降雨日数、极端降雨平均强度、最大1d降雨量、最大连续3d降雨量)及通过将五者叠加得到的极端降雨综合指数,运用Mann-Kendall及小波分析等方法对珠江流域极端降雨时空变化特征规律及气候影响因子进行了研究。结果表明:1) 珠江流域大部分地区极端降雨呈上升趋势,预示着流域发生洪涝灾害的可能性增加,防洪压力增大。2) 53年流域极端降雨未发生显著突变。3) 流域极端降雨具有长期记忆性,即未来仍呈不显著增加趋势。4) 流域极端降雨存在2.2~6.5a的主振荡周期,且以短周期演变为主,长周期变化不明显,具有多尺度周期振荡特征。5) 交叉小波分析结果表明,ENSO、太阳黑子活动是珠江流域极端降雨的主要影响因素。
 Based on the daily precipitation data at 41 observational stations of the Pearl River Basin from 1960 to 2012, defining five extreme precipitation indices such as total extreme precipitation, extreme rain days, mean intensity of extreme precipitation, maximum 1-day precipitation, maximum consecutive 3-day precipitation and comprehensive index of extreme precipitation, using the methods of Mann-Kendall and Wavelet analysis, the spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation of the Pearl River Basin are analyzed. The affecting factors of climate are studied as well. The results show that: 1) The extreme precipitation shows an increasing trend in most area of the basin. More flood disasters might occur in the basin; 2) No significant mutation can be identified in these indices in recent 53 years; 3) All the indices have a long-term memory characteristic that future tendency is consistent with those of the past; 4) The extreme precipitation shows complex periodic variations with the primary oscillation periods of 2.2~6.5a; 5) Cross wavelet analysis and coherence analysis show that ENSO and sunspot are the main factors affecting the extreme precipitation in the basin.

文章引用: 吴旭树 , 王兆礼 , 赖成光 , 陈晓宏 (2013) 珠江流域极端降雨时空变化规律及气候影响因素研究。 水资源研究, 2, 402-408. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2013.26057

参考文献

[1] 张增信, 栾以玲, 姜彤等. 长江三角洲极端降水趋势及未来情景预估[J]. 南京林业大学学报, 2008, 32(3): 5-8. ZHANG Zengxin, LUAN Yiling, JIANG Tong, et al. Changes of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River delta and its pre- evaluation for future. Journal of Nanjing Forestry University, 2008, 32(3): 5-8. (in Chinese)

[2] IPCC. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change: Cli- mate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cam- bridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007.

[3] 彭俊台, 张强, 陈晓宏, 陈永勤. 珠江流域极端降雨时空演变特征分析[J]. 灾害学, 2011, 26(4): 24-28. (in Chinese) PENG Juntai, ZHANG Qiang, CHEN Xiaohong and CHEN Yongqin. Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of ex- treme rainfalls in the Pearl River basin. Journal of Catas- trophology, 2011, 26(4): 24-28. (in Chinese)

[4] KARL, T.R., KNIGHT, R.W., et al. Secular trends of precipita- tion amount frequency and intensity in the USA. Journal of Hy- drology, 2010, 25(3): 507-516.

[5] WANG, D.B., HAGEN, S.C. and ALIZAD, K. Climate change impact and uncertainty analysis of extreme rainfall events in the Apalachicola River basin, Florida. Journal of Hydrology, 2013, 480(6): 125-135.

[6] AGUILAR E., et al. Changes in precipitation and temperature extremes in Central America and northern South America, 1961- 2003. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2005, 110(D23): D2310.

[7] JAIN, S., LALL, U. Magnitude and timing of annual maximum floods: Trends and large-scale climatic associations for the Black- smith Fork River, Utah. Water Resources Research, 2000, 36(12): 3641-3651.

[8] ZHAI, P.M., ZHANG, X.B., et al. Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China. J. Climate, 2005, (18): 1096-1108.

[9] NING, L., QIAN, Y.F. Interdecadal change in extreme precipita- tion over south china and its me-chanism. Advances in Atmos- pheric Sciences, 2009, 26(1): 109-118.

[10] LIU, J.-W., et al. The extreme summer precipitation over east China during 1982-2007 simulated by the LASG/IAP regional climate model. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 2012, 5(1): 62-67.

[11] 魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 1999: 43-69. WEI Fengying. Statistical diagnosis and forecasting technique of climate at present. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1999: 43-69. (in Chinese)

[12] 王亚敏, 张勃等. 地磁Ap指数与太阳黑子数的交叉小波分析及R/S分析[J]. 地理科学, 2011, 31(6): 747-751. WANG Yamin, ZHANG Bo, et al. Cross wavelet analysis and R/S analysis of relationship between geomagnetic Ap index and sunspot number. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2011, 31(6): 747- 751. (in Chinese)

[13] 郝志新, 郑景云, 葛全胜. 黄河中下游地区降水变化的周期分析[J]. 地理学报, 2007, 62(5): 538-544. HAO Zhixin, ZHENG Jingyun, GE Quansheng. Precipitation cycles in the middle and lower Yellow River. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2007, 62(5): 538-544. (in Chinese)

[14] TORRENCE, C., COMPO, G.P. A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1998, 79(1): 61-78.

[15] LING, Y. Hydroeletric engineeing books of Changjiang water resources commission. Beijing, 2005.

[16] 王家龙, 孙静兰. 太阳活动及其对地球环境的影响[J]. 第四纪研究, 2002, 22(6): 511-521. Wang Jialong, Sun Jinglan. Solar activities and their effects on terrestrial environments. Quaternary Sciences, 2002, 22(6): 511- 521. (in Chinese)

分享
Top