气候变化对渭河流域径流的影响
Impact of Climate Change on Runoff in the Wei River Basin, China

作者: 左德鹏 , 徐宗学 , 赵 捷 , 杨晓静 :北京师范大学水科学研究院,水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京;

关键词: 气候变化径流SWATGCMs渭河Climate Change Runoff SWAT GCMs Wei River

摘要: 本文采用GCMs和水文模型耦合的方式,基于SWAT在渭河流域构建分布式水文模型,并采用SUFI-2算法进行参数敏感性分析、参数率定、模型验证以及不确定性分析,从而对渭河流域1961~2008年的径流过程进行模拟。然后将GCMs降尺度生成不同情景下降水、最高、最低气温日序列输入SWAT模型,模拟流域未来径流量,从而分析未来不同气候变化条件下流域径流可能的变化。研究结果表明:2046~20652081~2100时期不同情景下流域多年平均径流量分别为80.4104.3亿m3,较基准期增加12.4%45%。未来两个时期,枯季流量较基准期更低,而洪峰流量则将较基准期更高,即流域内极端事件(干旱与洪水)在未来两个时期有加剧趋势。不同情景下渭河流域径流深空间变化较为一致,即上游部分子流域和北洛河上游地区径流量较基准期有所减少,而流域中下游地区径流量均呈一定的增加趋势。

Abstract: In this study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected to set up a hydrological model in the Wei River basin (WRB), calibrated and validated with Sequential Uncertainty Fitting program (SUFI-2) based on river discharge, then future daily precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature data series at each station, generated by the Statistical Downscaling Method (SDSM), were inputted to drive the SWAT model for analyzing the spatiotemporal characteristics of runoff during the future periods (2046-2065 and 2081-2100) under three climate scenarios including CSIRO, INM and MRI. Two emission scenarios (SRES A2 and SRES B1) were also included. The results show that average values of mean annual runoff in the periods of 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 were 80.4 × 108 m3 and 104.3 × 108 m3, which were greater than runoff in the base period by 12.4% and 45%, respectively. In both of the future periods, low flows would be much lower, while high flows tend to be much higher than that in the base period. In other words, there would be more extreme events (droughts and floods) in the future. For the spatial distribution of runoff over the WRB, it showed consistency for runoff changes under most combined scenarios, with runoff decreased at some areas of upstream and the upstream of Beiluo River, while increased at mid-lower stream of the WRB.

文章引用: 左德鹏 , 徐宗学 , 赵 捷 , 杨晓静 (2013) 气候变化对渭河流域径流的影响。 水资源研究, 2, 364-370. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2013.26051

参考文献

[1] XU, Z.X., TAKEUCHI, K., ISHIDAIRA, H., et al. Sustainabi- lity analysis for Yellow River water resources using the system dynamics approach. Water Resources Management, 2002, 16(3): 239-261.

[2] RINGLER, C., CAI, X.M., WANG, J.X., et al. Yellow River basin: Living with scarcity. Water International, 2010, 35(5): 681-701.

[3] LIU, Q.A., CUI, B.S. Impacts of climate change/variability on the streamflow in the Yellow River Basin, China. Ecological Modelling, 2011, 222(2): 268-274.

[4] XU, C.Y., WIDÉN, E. and HALLDIN, S. Modelling hydrologi- cal consequences of climate change-progress and challenges. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2005, 22(6): 789-797.

[5] XU, Z.X., TAKEUCHI, K., ISHIDAIRA, H., et al. An overview of water resources in the Yellow River basin. Water Interna-tional. 2005, 30(2): 225-238.

[6] ZUO, D.P., XU, Z.X., YANG, H, et al. Spatiotemporal variations and abrupt changes of potential evapotranspiration and its sensi- tivity to key meteorological variables in the Wei River basin, China. Hydrological Processes, 2012, 8(26): 1149-1160.

[7] BRONSTERT, A., NIEHOFF, D. and BURGER, G. Effects of climate and land-use change on storm runoff generation: Present knowledge and modelling capabilities. Hydrological Processes, 2002, 16(2): 509-529.

[8] XU, Y., GAO, X.J., SHEN, Y., et al. A daily temperature dataset over China and its application in validating a RCM simulation. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2009, 26(4): 763-772.

[9] 左德鹏,徐宗学,李景玉,等. 气候变化情景下渭河流域潜在蒸散量时空变化特征[J]. 水科学进展, 2011, 22(4): 455-461. ZUO Depeng, XU Zongxue, LI Jingyu, et al. Spatiotemporal characteristics of potential evapotranspiration in the Weihe River basin under future climate change. Advances in Water Science, 2011, 22(4): 455-461. (in Chinese)

[10] NEITSCH, S.L., ARNOLD, J.G., KINIRY, J.R., et al. Soil and water assessment tool theoretical documentation version 2005. Temple, Texas: Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service, Blackland Research Center, Texas Agricultural Experiment Station, 2005.

[11] ABBASPOUR, K.C. SWAT-CUP, SWAT calibration and uncer- tainty programs. Duebendorf, Switzerland: Swiss Federal Insti- tute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Eawag, 2007: 95.

[12] 左德鹏,徐宗学. 基于SWAT模型和SUFI-2算法的渭河流域月径流分布式模拟[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2012, 48(5): 490-496. ZUO Depeng, XU Zongxue. Distributed hydrological simulation using SWAT and SUFI-2 in the Wei River basin. Journal of Bei- jing Normal University (Natural Science), 2012, 48(5): 490-496. (in Chinese).

分享
Top