Impact of Climate Change on Runoff in the Wei River Basin, China
Abstract: In this study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected to set up a hydrological model in the Wei River basin (WRB), calibrated and validated with Sequential Uncertainty Fitting program (SUFI-2) based on river discharge, then future daily precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature data series at each station, generated by the Statistical Downscaling Method (SDSM), were inputted to drive the SWAT model for analyzing the spatiotemporal characteristics of runoff during the future periods (2046-2065 and 2081-2100) under three climate scenarios including CSIRO, INM and MRI. Two emission scenarios (SRES A2 and SRES B1) were also included. The results show that average values of mean annual runoff in the periods of 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 were 80.4 × 108 m3 and 104.3 × 108 m3, which were greater than runoff in the base period by 12.4% and 45%, respectively. In both of the future periods, low flows would be much lower, while high flows tend to be much higher than that in the base period. In other words, there would be more extreme events (droughts and floods) in the future. For the spatial distribution of runoff over the WRB, it showed consistency for runoff changes under most combined scenarios, with runoff decreased at some areas of upstream and the upstream of Beiluo River, while increased at mid-lower stream of the WRB.
文章引用: 左德鹏 , 徐宗学 , 赵 捷 , 杨晓静 (2013) 气候变化对渭河流域径流的影响。 水资源研究， 2， 364-370. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2013.26051
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