青藏高原乡村人群对气候变化影响的感知与适应
The Perception and Adaptation of Rural Population to Climate Change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

作者: 周尧治 :西藏农牧学院高原生态研究所,林芝; 贾根锁 :中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京 ; 郭英春 :西藏大学农牧学院,林芝; 曲 扎 :西藏大学农牧学院,林芝 ;

关键词: 青藏高原乡村人群气候变化感知与适应Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Rural Population Climate Change Perception and Adaptation

摘要:
青藏高原是全球气候变化的敏感区和脆弱区。研究青藏高原乡村人群对气候变化的感知与适应状况,对提高乡村人群气候变化的适应能力,促进青藏高原地区的社会稳定和可持续发展意义重大。本文采用问卷调查和访谈相结合的方式,分析了青藏高原乡村人群对气候变化感知与适应的现状。结果表明:在气候变化对农牧业的影响感知方面,68%的调查对象认为草场返青时间提前,62%认为在气候变化后草场状况恶化,78%认为农作物播种时间提前。在气候变化带来的不利影响感知方面,调查对象最担心的 3 个问题依次是:干旱更加严重(50.4%)、水资源矛盾突出(48.5%)、农业粮食安全(36.8%)。对气候变化的适应对策主要是:完善水利设施,采用高效节水灌溉技术(73.8%)、增加塑料地膜覆盖面或作物秸秆覆盖(58.2%)、调整农作物种植结构,改变作物布局(47.6%)。

Abstract:
The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is regard as a sensitive and fragile area of global climate change. Understanding the perception and adaptation of rural population to climate change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is a key step toward social stability and economic sustainable development. The present paper used the method of questionnaire survey combining interview with respondent. After acquiring the information about the climate change knowledge of rural population in the Minhe County, we analyzed the mode of climate change perception and adaptation of the local people. With regard to the perception of the impact of climate change on agriculture and animal husbandry, 68% held that grassland returned green earlier than before, and 62% considered that the grassland degraded, and 78% thought that the sowing time of crop was ahead of time. Concerning the perception of disadvantages from future climate change, what worried respondents most were more severe drought (50.4%), contradiction of water resources (48.5%) and food security (36.8%). About climate change adaptation strategies, 73.8% respondents chose improvement of water conservancy facilities and water-saving irrigation technology, and 58.2% adopted plastic mulch coverage or crop straw mulching, and 47.3% depended on adjustment of crop planting structure and crop distribution.

文章引用: 周尧治 , 贾根锁 , 郭英春 , 曲 扎 (2013) 青藏高原乡村人群对气候变化影响的感知与适应。 气候变化研究快报, 2, 169-173. doi: 10.12677/CCRL.2013.24029

参考文献

[1] IPCC. Summary for policymakers of climate change 2007: Con- tribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University press, 2007.###R. J. Bord, A. O. Fisher and R. E. Connor. Public perceptions of global warming: United States and international perspectives. Climate Research, 1998, 11: 75-84.###H. Eakin, C. Tucker and E. Castellanos. Responding to the cof- fee crisis: A pilot study of farmers adaptations in Mexico, Gua- temala and Honduras. Geographical Journal, 2006, 172: 156- 171.###O. Mertz, C. Mbow, A. Reenberg, et al. Farmers’ perceptions of climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies in rural Sahel. Environmental Management, 2009, 43: 804-816.###M. J. Mortimore, W. M. Adams. Farmer adaptation change and crisis in the Sahel. Global Environmental Change, 2001, 11: 49- 57.###D. Thomas, C. Twyman, H. Osbahr, et al. Adaptation to climate change and variability: Farmer responses to intra-seasonal pre- cipitation trends in South Africa. Climatic Change, 2007, 83: 301-322.###田青. 人类感知和适应气候变化的行为学研究: 以吉林省敦化市乡村为例[D]. 北京师范大学, 2005.###周旗, 郁耀闯. 关中地区公众气候变化感知的时空变异[J]. 地理研究, 2009, 28(1): 45-54. ###云雅如, 方修琦, 田青. 乡村人群气候变化感知的初步分析:以黑龙江省漠河县为例[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2009, 5(2): 117-121. ###邓茂芝, 张洪广, 毛炜峄等. 乌鲁木齐河流域普通民众对冰冻圈变化的感知及适应性对策选择[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2011, 7(1): 65-72. ###陈彩苹, 丁永建, 刘时银. 塔里木河上游阿克苏地区水资源绿洲农业种植结构调整优化研究: 以拜城县为例[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2007, 21(5): 29-34. ###邓茂芝, 王英巍, 毛炜峄等. 阿克苏河流域公众气候变化感知及适应措施选择的差异分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2012, 1(1): 19-25.###气候变化国家评估报告编写委员会. 气候变化国家评估报告[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2007.###张拥军, 康世昌, 秦大河等. 青藏高原格拉丹东冰心记录的季节气温变化[J]. 地理学报, 2007, 62(5): 501-509.###潘保田, 李吉均. 青藏高原: 全球气候变化的启动机与放大器. III. 青藏高原隆起对气候变化的影响[J]. 兰州大学学报(自然科学版), 1996, 32(1): 108-115.###于东平. 气候变化对青海省东部地区农业的影响[D]. 西北农林科技大学, 2012. ###韩国军. 近50年青藏高原气候变化特征分析[D]. 成都理工大学, 2012.###

分享
Top