基于PSR模型的北京市水资源短缺风险评价
An Assessment of Water Resources Shortage Risk in Beijing Based on PSR Framework

作者: 廖 强 * , 张士锋 :中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所; 陈俊旭 :中国科学院大学;

关键词: 北京市水资源短缺风险PSR框架模型主成分分析法Beijing City Water Resources Shortage Risk PSR Framework Principal Component Analysis

摘要: 本文将“压力状态响应”(PSR)框架模型引入到水资源短缺风险评价指标体系中,采用主成分分析方法对评价指标进行赋权,对北京市1986~2011年年度水资源短缺风险水平进行了评价。结果表明,近年来北京综合风险值一直处于较高水平,1999~2008年尤为严重,从2008年起得到一定的缓和。水资源利用率与污水处理能力这两项指标对水资源风险的产生有较大的影响。随着人口增长,未来北京仍然面临较高水资源短缺的风险。控制人口过度增长,合理使用各种水源,加快产业结构优化升级是缓解水资源短缺风险的有效途径。

Abstract: Water resources shortage risk index system based on the “Pressure-State-Response” (PSR) framework is established and applied to assess water resources shortage risk level during 1986-2011 in Beijing city with the assistance of principal component analysis method. The research shows that Beijing has experienced a ten-year low flow period with high integrated value of risk since 1999; however, such situation became alleviative since 2008. Utilization ratio of water resources and urban sewage treatment capacity are considered to be two of 14 indicators which have greater impact on water shortage risk. Even though the water resources risk in Beijing reduced a little in these recent years, Beijing still faces risks of water shortages in the future as the population increased. Curb of population growth, rational use of various kinds of water and upgrade of industrial structure are effective ways to alleviate water shortage risk.

文章引用: 廖 强 , 张士锋 , 陈俊旭 (2013) 基于PSR模型的北京市水资源短缺风险评价。 水资源研究, 2, 188-195. doi: 10.12677/JWRR.2013.23027

参考文献

[1] JIANG, Y. China’s water scarcity. Journal of Environmental Management, 2009, 90(11): 3185-3196.

[2] Beyond scarcity: Power, poverty and the global water crisis. Human Development Report, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006.

[3] VAIRAVAMOORTHY, K., GORANTIWAR, S. D. and PATHIRANA, A. Managing urban water supplies in developing countries—Climate change and water scarcity scenarios. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 2008, 33(5): 330-339.

[4] MURRAY, S. J., FOSTER, P. N. and PRENTICE, I. C. Future global water resources with respect to climate change and water withdrawals as estimated by a dynamic global vegetation model. Journal of Hydrology, 2012, 448-449: 14-29.

[5] HASHIMOTO, T., STEDINGER, J. R. and LOUCKS, D. P. Reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation. Water Resources Re-search, 1982, 18(1):14-20.

[6] 黄初龙, 章新光, 杨建峰. 中国水资源可持续利用评价指标体系研究进展[J]. 资源科学, 2006, 28(2): 33-40. HUANG Chulong, ZHANG Guanxin and YANG Jianfeng. In-dicators system for sustainability assessment of water resources use in China. Resources Science, 2006, 28(2): 33-40. (in Chi-nese)

[7] 贾绍凤, 张军岩, 张士锋. 区域水资源压力指数与水资源安全评价指标体系[J]. 地理科学进展, 2002, 21(6): 538-545. JIA Shaofeng, ZHANG Junyan and ZHANG Shifeng. Regional water resources stress and water resources security appraisement indicators. Progress in Geography, 2002, 21(6): 538-545. (in Chinese)

[8] 韩宇平, 阮本清. 区域水安全评价指标体系初步研究[J]. 环境科学学报, 2003, 23(2): 267-272. HAN Yuping, RUAN Benqing. Research on evaluation index system of water safety. Acta scientiae Circumstantiae, 2003, 23(2): 267-272. (in Chinese)

[9] 韩宇平, 阮本清. 多层次多目标模糊优选模型在水安全评价中的应用[J]. 资源科学, 2003, 25(4): 37-33. HAN Yuping, RUAN Benqing. Multi-objective and multilevel fuzzy optimization model and its application in water security evaluation. Resources Research, 2003, 25(4): 37-33. (in Chinese)

[10] 李九一, 李丽娟, 柳玉梅, 等. 区域尺度水资源短缺风险评估与决策体系——以京津唐地区为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2010, 29(9): 1041-1048. LI Jiuyi, LI Lijuan, LIU Yumei, et al. Framework for water scarcity assessment and solution at regional scales: A case study in Bei-jing-Tianjin-Tangshan region. Progress in Geography, 2010, 29(9): 1041-1048. (in Chinese)

[11] 张士锋, 陈俊旭, 华东, 等. 水资源系统风险构成及其评价——以北京市为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2010, 25(11): 1855- 1860. ZHANG Shifeng, CHEN Junxu, HUA Dong, et al. Research on the assessment of water resources system risk—A case study of Beijing. Journal of Natural Resources, 2010, 25(11): 1855-1860. (in Chinese)

[12] 高媛媛, 王红瑞, 许新宜, 等. 水资源安全评价模型构建与应用——以福建省泉州市为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2012, 27(2): 204-214. GAO Yuanyuan, WANG Hongrui, XU Xinyi, et al. Assessment of water resources security—Case of Quanzhou City in Fujian Province. Journal of Natural Resources, 2012, 27(2): 204-214. (in Chinese)

[13] 杨丽英, 许新宜, 贾香香. 水资源效率评价指标体系探讨[J].北京师范大学学报: 自然科学版, 2009, 45(5-6): 634-646. Yang Liying, XU Xinyi and JIA Xiangxiang. Water use efficiency evaluating index system. Journal of Beijing Normal University: Natural Science, 2009, 45(5-6): 634-646. (in Chinese)

[14] 高媛媛, 许新宜, 王红瑞, 等. 中国水资源利用效率评估模型构建及应用[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2013, 33(3): 776-784. GAO Yuanyuan, XU Xinyi, WANG Hongrui, et al. New model for water use efficiency evaluation of China and its application. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2013, 33(3): 776-784. (in Chinese)

[15] 洛正清, 杨善林. 层次分析法中几种标度的比较[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2009, 29(9): 51-60. LUO Zhengqing, YANG Shanlin. Comparative study on several scales in AHP. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2009, 29(9): 51-60. (in Chinese)

[16] WALZ, R. Development of environmental indicator systems: Experiences from Germany. Environmental Management, 2000, 25(6): 613-623.

[17] HUANG, H. F., KUO, J. and LO, S.-L. Review of PSR framework and development of a DPSIR model to assess greenhouse effect in Taiwan. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2011, 177(1-4): 623-635.

[18] 左其亭. 净水资源利用率的计算及阈值的讨论[J]. 水力学报, 2011, 42(11): 1372-1379. ZUO Qiting. Discussion on the calculation method and threshold of the net-utilization ratio of the water resources. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2011, 42(11): 1372-1379. (in Chinese)

[19] WESTRA, S., BROWN, C., LALL, U., et al. Modeling multivariable hydrological series: Principal component analysis or independent component analysis. Water Resources Research, 2007, 43(6): W06429.

[20] 凌子燕, 刘锐. 基于主成分分析的广东省区域水资源紧缺风险评价[J]. 资源科学, 2010, 32(12): 2324-2328. LING Ziyan, LIU Rui. Risk assessment on regional water scarcity in Guangdong Province based on principal component analysis. Resources Science, 2010, 32(12): 2324-2328. (in Chinese)

[21] 孙刘平, 钱吴永. 基于主成分分析法的综合评价方法的改进[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2009, 18(3): 256-264. SUN Liuping, QIAN Wuyong. An improved method based on principal component analysis for the comprehensive evaluation. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2009, 18(3): 256-264. (in Chinese)

[22] 北京市发展和改革委员会. 北京市水资源综合规划专题[M]. 北京: 北京市水务局, 2005. Beijing Development and Reform Committee. Integrated water resources planning project of Beijing. Beijing: Beijing Water- Affair Authority, 2005. (in Chinese)

[23] 张晓军, 侯汉坡, 吴雁军. 基于水资源利用的北京市第三产业结构优化研究[J]. 北京交通大学学报(社会科学版), 2010, 9(1): 20-24. ZHANG Xiaojun, HOU Hanpo and WU Yanjun. Study on opti-mization of Beijing tertiary industrial structure based on water resources utilization. Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University (Social Sciences Edition), 2010, 9(1): 20-24. (in Chinese)

[24] 吴佩林, 谈明洪. 产业结构升级与城市水资源可持续利用——以北京市为例[J]. 资源开发与市场, 2009, 25(3): 1102-1105. WU Peilin, TAN Minghong. Industrial structure upgrade and sustainable urban water consumption—A case study in Beijing city. Resource Development and Market, 2009, 25(3): 1102-1105. (in Chinese)

分享
Top