台湾低碳电力结构分析
Analysis of Low Carbon Power Infrastructure of Taiwan
作者: 吕锡民 :国立台湾大学,能源研究中心,台北市,台湾;
关键词: 低碳; 碳捕捉与封存技术; 电力结构; Low Carbon; Carbon Capture and Storage; Power Infrastructure
摘要:Abstract: The study assumes that CCS can be successfully applied on the coal-fired and gas-fired power generation in the future, then regardless of the existence of nuclear power, without the substantial expanding of renewables, and with the fossil fuel generation capacity close to the BAU scenario, the overall power and emission reduction objectives can be fully met, with the increase of power cost up to about 34%. This study concludes that CCS is the most economic and effective methods for Taiwan to construct a low-carbon power infrastructure. However, the commercialization of CCS in the short-and-medium term is still a question, plus it is no doubt that Taiwan lacks fossil energy but reserves abundant resources of renewable energy. Even renewable energy cannot become power mainstream in the short-and-medium term, under the technology’s progress and accumulation in the long-term, at end the renewables will overcome their shortcomings of power instability and partially high price. In the view angle of energy security, the development of renewable energy is an indispensable ring of Taiwanese energy policy.
文章引用: 吕锡民 (2013) 台湾低碳电力结构分析。 电力与能源进展, 1, 22-33. doi: 10.12677/AEPE.2013.12005
参考文献
[1] MOEABOE. Energy Statistics Handbook 2010. http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/promote/publications/PrPubMain.aspx?PageId=pr_publist
[2] http://cdnet.stpi.org.tw/techroom/policy/2011/policy_11_046.htm
[3] F. L. Chen, S.-M. Lu, K.-T. Tseng, S.-C. Lee and E. Wang. Assess- ment of renewable energy reserves in Taiwan. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Review, 2010, 14(9): 2511-2528.
[4] BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2011.
[5] J. G. Canadell, et al. Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and effi- ciency of natural sinks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA, 2007, 104(47): 18866-18870.
[6] U. Siegenthaler, et al. Stable carbon cycle-climate relationship during the late Pleistocene. Science, 2005, 310(5752): 1313-1317.
[7] P. N. Pearson, M. R. Palmer. Atmospheric carbon dioxide con- centrations over the past 60 million years. Nature, 2000, 406 (6797): 695-699.
[8] B. Metz, et al. Climate change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of working group III to the fourth assessment report of the inter- governmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007.
[9] M. Vermeer, S. Rahmstorf. Global sea level linked to global temperature. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA, 2009, 106(51): 21527-21532.
[10] Department of Economic and Social Affairs of United Nations. World Population to 2300, 2004.
[11] MOEABOE. 台湾燃料燃烧二氧化碳排放统计分析[URL], 2012. http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/promote/greenhouse/PrGHMain.aspx?PageId=pr_gh_list
[12] 99~108年长期负载预测与电源开发规划摘要报告[URL]. MOEABOE, 2010. http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/TopicSite/Policy_price_electronic/Default.htm
[13] 2010年至2060年台湾人口推计[URL]. 经建会, 2010. http://www.cepd.gov.tw/m1.aspx?sNo=0000455
[14] MOEABOE. 台湾燃料燃烧之二氧化碳排放统计与分析[URL], 2012. http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/promote/greenhouse/PrGHMain.aspx?PageId=pr_gh_list
[15] MOEABOE web. http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/opengovinfo/Plan/all/energy_mthreport/main/11.htm
[16] 邱锦松. 台湾再生能源推动情形简报数据[Z]. 工研院绿能与环境研究所, 工业技术研究院绿能与环境研究所, 2010-3-3.
[17] http://bbs.sciencenet.cn/home.php?mod=space&uid=336909&do=blog&id=488081
[18] Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology. Carbon foot- print of electricity generation. Postnote Octorber 2006, No. 268. http://www.parliament.uk/documents/post/postpn268.pdf
[19] B. K. Sovacool. Valuing the greenhouse gas emissions from nu- clear power: A critical survey. Energy Policy, 2008, 36(8): 2940- 2953.
[20] D. Hogg. A changing climate for energy from waste? Final Report for Friends of the Earth, Eunomia-Research & Consulting, 2006: 11. http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/reports/changing_climate.pdf
[21] http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/0800016823-0800016823/article?mid=-2&prev=424&l=a&fid=8
[22] 杜悦元. 迈向“低碳家园”之路——电力篇[URL], 2009. http://ivy1.epa.gov.tw/unfccc/chinese/_upload/p_07.pdf
[23] R. Kannan, N. Strachan, S. Pye. G. Anandarajah and N. Balta- Ozkan. UK MARKAL model: Chapter 5. Electricity and Heat Generation (and appendix), 2007. www.ukerc.ac.uk
[24] T. Johnson. An EPA overview: Energy technology assessment and regional MARKAL modeling initiatives. National Risk Management Research Laboratory Office of Research and De- velopment, 2004.
[25] E. Wright, D. Loughlin. Introduction to Markal model structure and applications. NE-MARKAL Stakeholders Meeting, 2003.
[26] Role and Potential of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency for Global Energy Supply. Environmental Research of the German Federal Ministry of the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, 2009.
[27] R. Loulou, et al. Documentation for the MARKAL family of models. Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme, 2004: 88-89.
[28] C. Yang, J. Ogden. Estimating the cost of a low carbon hydrogen supply in the United States. Presented in Sustainable Transporta- tion Energy Pathways (STEPS) Program University of Califor- nia, Davis, 2010.
[29] http://www.econ.kuleuven.be/ete/research/models/markal.htm
[30] http://taiwanrate.com/irate_chart.php
[31] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_cost
[32] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operating_cost
[33] E. Endo, M. Ichinohe. Analysis on market deployment of photo- voltaics in Japan by using energy system model MARKAL. Journal of Solar Energy Materials & Solar Cells, 2006, 90(18- 19): 3061-3067.
[34] Integrated Energy and Environmental Planning with MARKAL Model. New York: Brookhaven National Laboratory State University of New York at Stony Brook, 2007.
[35] 吕锡民. 我国未来的能源结构[J]. 科学发展, 2011, 463: 66- 71.
[36] D. Anderson. Costs and finance of abating carbon emissions in the energy sector, 2006. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/stern_review_supporting_technical_material_dennis_anderson_231006.pdf
[37] Renewables 2007 Global Status Report, 2008. http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/renewables2007.pdf
[38] http://www.toolbase.org/Technology-Inventory/Electrical-Electronics/chp-fuel-cell
[39] G. Kumbaroglu, R. Madlener and M. Demirel. A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies. Energy Economics, 2008, 30(4): 1882-1908.
[40] http://www.taipower.com.tw/left_bar/power_life/power_development_plan/Power_development_plan.htm