金融

Vol.2 No.1 (January 2012)

货币供应量作为中国货币政策中介目标的两条路径
Two Paths to the Intermediate Target of Monetary Policy Based on the Money Supply in China

 

作者:

阎虎勤 , 刘震宇

 

关键词:

存量货币数量方程式增量货币数量方程式货币流通加速度超额货币增长率 货币政策中介目标Quantity Equation of Money Quantity Equation of Money Changes Acceleration Velocity of Money Excess Money Growth Rate Intermediate Target for Monetary Policy

 

摘要:

货币供应量是否适合被作为中国货币政策中介目标呢?为了回答这个问题,我们建立了两个理论模型作为两条通向目标解决方案的路径。路径1:在假定货币流通速度为变量而非固定的情况下(阎虎勤、刘震宇,2011)[1],通过应用Friedman(1956)[2]提出的存量收入货币数量方程式,我们建立了一个求解货币供应量增长率预期值的模型。路径2:通过应用阎虎勤、刘震宇(2011)[3]提出的增量收入货币数量方程式,我们建立了另外一个求解货币供应量预期值的模型。通过以中国1994~2010年的数据为样本进行实证分析和敏感性分析证实,虽然通过两条路径我们都可以得到货币供应量增长率的预期值,但是路径2比路径1更显著。

Should the money supply be used as an intermediate target of monetary policy in China? For an- swering this question, we have created two theoretical models as two paths to the target solutions. Path 1: when assuming that the velocity of money is a variable but not a constant (Yan Huqin, Liu Zhenyu, 2011)[1], by using the income quantity equation of money suggested by Friedman (1956)[2], we have created one model to get the expected growth rate of money supply. Path 2: by using the income quantity equation of money changes suggested by Yan Huqin and Liu Zhenyu (2011)[3], we have created the other model to get the ex- pected growth rate of money supply. Based on the Chinese data sample during 1994-2010 the empirical and sensitivity analysis has approved that even though through the two paths we can get the expected growth rate of money supply, the path 2 is more significant than the path 1.

文章引用:

阎虎勤 , 刘震宇 (2012) 货币供应量作为中国货币政策中介目标的两条路径。 金融, 2, 9-29. doi: 10.12677/fin.2012.21002

 

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