可持续发展

Vol.5 No.4 (October 2015)

我国能源消费、环境污染与经济增长的动态关系研究—基于全国30个省级行政单位动态面板模型的实证分析
The Dynamic Relationship among Energy Consumption, Environmental Pollution and Economic Growth in China—An Empirical Analysis Based on the Dynamic Panel Model of 30 Provincial Administrative Units of China

 

作者:

马 博 :云南财经大学统计与数学学院,云南 昆明

 

关键词:

能源消费环境污染经济增长四大假说环境库兹涅兹曲线动态面板模型Energy Consumption Environmental Pollution Economic Growth Four Hypotheses Environmental Kuznets Curve Dynamic Panel Data Model

 

摘要:

Apergis and Payne (2009)提出了能源消费与经济发展的四大假说,即增长性假说、保护性假说、反馈性假说和中性假说,认为不同国家和社会的能源消费与经济增长之间存在着单向因果关系、双向因果关系或弱相关关系。Grossman and Krueger (1991)提出的环境库兹涅兹曲线(Environmental Kuznets Curve, EKC)假说认为环境污染与经济增长之间存在着倒U型关系。本文以上述假说为理论依据,将能源消费、环境污染与经济增长的关系纳入到一个整体的框架之中进行静态理论分析,并利用全国30个省级行政单位的面板数据建立动态面板模型对三者之间的动态关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,我国的经济发展水平在长期中处在ECK曲线的左边但已经站上ECK曲线的拐点;我国的经济增长正在逐渐摆脱对能源的依赖和对环境的破坏,能源产业和环保产业的发展将成为我国经济发展的内生动力;经济发展方式的转变构建起能源消费、环境污染与经济增长的动态均衡机制。

According to the relationship between energy consumption and economic development in different counties and societies, Apergis and Payne (2009) proposed four hypotheses—energy-driven growth hypothesis, energy-conserved growth hypothesis, bidirectional interaction hypothesis and energy- neutral growth hypothesis, revealing the corresponding characteristics of the above relationship, which are unidirectional causality, two-way causality and weak correlation respectively. And Grossman and Krueger (1991) proposed the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in which the inverted u-shaped relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth is considered. Based on the above hypotheses, this paper brings the relationship among energy con-sumption, environmental pollution and economic growth into an overall framework for statically theoretical analysis, and the empirical research on the correspondingly dynamic relationship among three referred above is made by using the panel data model, established by the data of 30 provincial administrative units of China. Results show that 1) the economic development of China, which has been at the left of THE EKC in the long time term, has climbed up to the inflection point and stood at the stage II of EKC; 2) economic growth of China is gradually getting rid of the dependence on energy and the sacrifice to environment; the development of energy and environmental protection industrials will become the endogenous power of economic development of China; 3) the transformation of the pattern of economic development is building the dynamic equilibrium mechanism of energy consumption, environmental pollution and economic growth.

文章引用:

马 博 (2015) 我国能源消费、环境污染与经济增长的动态关系研究—基于全国30个省级行政单位动态面板模型的实证分析。 可持续发展, 5, 95-106. doi: 10.12677/SD.2015.54013

 

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